IPCC and Assessment Reports

Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) consists of three Working Group (WG) Reports and a Synthesis Report. The first Working Group Report was published in 2013 and the rest were completed in 2014.

·         WG I: The Physical Science Basis – 30 September 2013, Summary for Policymakers - published 27 September 2013.

·         WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – 31 March 2014

·         WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change – 11 April 2014

·         AR5 Synthesis Report (SYR) – 2 November 2014

 

Major findings :-

Ø  In the longer term, in all except the low-emission scenario, global warming at the end of the 21st century is likely to be at least 1.5 degree Celsius.

Ø  In higher emission scenarios warming is likely to be 2 degree Celsius.

Ø   the report warns that if emissions are not reduced significantly globally, average global temperatures could rise by 2.6 to 4.8 degree Celsius.

Ø  For India –

v  In the Indo-Gangetic plains which produce 90 million tonnes of wheat a year (about 14-15 per cent of global production), projections indicate a substantial fall in yields unless there is a shift to different crop varieties and management practices.

v   it adds that the incidence of many diseases, such as dengue and Japanese Encephalitis, increase at higher temperatures. In the last few years the incidence of these vector borne diseases has increased in India.

v  The Asia region, as a whole, experienced the most weather and climate-related disasters in the world between 2000 and 2008, and suffered the second-highest proportion (almost 30 per cent) of total global economic losses

 

Synthesis Report, 2014

1)      The report is more categorical in asserting that the observed changes are not just a natural fluctuation but a consequence of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.

2)      At the current rate of emissions, even after factoring all the promises by countries to reduce their emissions, the world is headed for nearly 4 degrees rise in global atmospheric temperature by the end of the century.

3)      The IPCC report states that the levels of three key greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide - are the highest in 800,000 years.

4)      The period between 1983 and 2012 were most likely to be the warmest 30-year period in the last 1,400 years.

5)      It also states that increased oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide has resulted in a 26% rise in acidity in oceans.

6)      The IPCC synthesis report presents a global carbon budget for containing the likely temperature increase to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To meet this goal, cumulative emissions would have to be limited to 790 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) - of which we have used up 515 GtC, leaving us with 275 GtC. To stay within this budget, global emissions will have to come down by 40-70 per cent of the 2010 level by 2050 and to zero by the end of the century.

7)      It stresses that this cost for coping with climate change is both affordable—about 0.06% of GDP every year—especially as global GDP is set to grow by at least 300% in this period and that the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.

8)      The synthesis report calls for a radical increase in global low-carbon electricity generation, including renewable and nuclear, from about 30 per cent today to “more than 80 per cent” by 2050.

Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

9)      The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations set up at the request of member governments.

10)  It was first established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and later endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly

11)  The IPCC produces reports that support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is the main international treaty on climate change.

12)   IPCC reports cover "the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

1)      The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself.

2)      The aims of the IPCC are to assess scientific information relevant to:

a)      Human-induced climate change,

b)      The impacts of human-induced climate change,

c)      Options for adaptation and mitigation.

3)      Working Groups :

                                i.            Working Group I: Assesses scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

                              ii.            Working Group II: Assesses vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, consequences, and adaptation options.

                            iii.            Working Group III: Assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.

4)      The Chair of IPCC is Rajendra Pachauri, elected in 2002. The organisation received Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

 

Assessment Reports

1)      These are published materials composed of the full scientific and technical assessment of climate change, generally in three volumes, one for each of the Working Groups of the IPCC, plus a Synthesis Report.

2)      Each of the Working Group volumes is composed of individual chapters, an optional Technical Summary and a Summary for Policymakers.

3)      The Synthesis Report synthesizes and integrates materials contained within the Assessment Reports and Special Reports and is written in a non-technical style suitable for policymakers and address a broad-range of policy-relevant but policy-neutral questions.

4)      Synthesis report is composed of a longer report and a Summary for Policymakers.

5)      List of Assessment Reports :

                                                        i.            First Assessment Report (FAR) - 1990

                                                      ii.            Second Assessment Report (SAR) - 1995

                                                    iii.            Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 2001

                                                     iv.            Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 2007

                                                       v.            Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) - 2014